عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:

Predictive models of safety based on audit findings: Part 2: Measurement of model validity

ترجمه عنوان مقاله: پیش بینی ایمنی بر اساس یافته های ممیزی: بخش دوم اندازه گیری روایی مدل ها

رشته: مدیریت

سال انتشار: 2013

تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی: 8 صفحه

منبع: الزویرو ساینس دایرکت

نوع فایل: pdf

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چکیده مقاله

Part 1 of this study sequence developed a human factors/ergonomics (HF/E) based classification system (termed HFACS-MA) for safety audit findings and proved its measurement reliability. In Part 2, we used the human error categories of HFACS-MA as predictors of future safety performance. Audit records and monthly safety incident reports from two airlines submitted to their regulatory authority were available for analysis, covering over 6.5 years. Two participants derived consensus results of HF/E errors from the audit reports using HFACS-MA.We adopted Neural Network and Poisson regression methods to establish nonlinear and linear prediction models respectively. These models were tested for the validity of prediction of the safety data, and only Neural Network method resulted in substantially significant predictive ability for each airline. Alternative predictions from counting of audit findings and from time sequence of safety data produced some significant results, but of much smaller magnitude than HFACSMA. The use of HF/E analysis of audit findings provided proactive predictors of future safety performance in the aviation maintenance field.

Keywords: Human error, HFACS-MA, Safety prediction, Neural network, Aviation maintenance

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